Key Points:
- Missile Launch: Ukraine's air force reported that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Dnipro on November 21, 2024, marking the potential first use of such a weapon in armed conflict.
- Impact: Nine missiles were launched, six intercepted by air defense systems. Three struck the city, causing damage to an industrial facility and sparking fires, though no casualties were confirmed.
- Unconfirmed Reports: Western officials suggest the missile may have been a shorter-range ballistic missile, not an ICBM, as Ukraine claims.
- Russian Denial: The Russian Ministry of Defense has not acknowledged the use of an ICBM, and no mention was made in its daily briefing.
- Political Signal: Experts argue that if it was an ICBM, its use could be a symbolic gesture rather than a tactical military strike, due to the weapon's high cost and low accuracy.
- Nuclear Concerns: ICBMs can carry nuclear warheads, raising fears of a potential escalation in the war.
- Foreign Ministry Leak: A hot mic incident involving Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova hinted that the target of the missile was a military facility in Dnipro.
- Broader Context: The missile strike follows recent moves by the US and UK to authorize Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian targets. The US embassy in Kyiv was also temporarily closed this week due to security threats.
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Ukraine Claims Russia Fired Intercontinental Ballistic Missile at Dnipro
In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing war, Ukraine’s air force reported on Thursday that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the city of Dnipro. If verified, this would be the first time in history that an ICBM has been used in an armed conflict, significantly raising the stakes in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The Strike on Dnipro
According to the Ukrainian military, the missile was fired from the Astrakhan region of Russia, located over 500 miles (800 km) from Dnipro, between 5 and 7 a.m. local time. The missile strike targeted industrial and critical infrastructure in the city, with nine projectiles reportedly launched. The Ukrainian air force claimed that six of the nine missiles were intercepted by air defense systems. However, the remaining three missiles hit the city, causing damage to an industrial facility and sparking fires in the area. No immediate reports of casualties were confirmed, although authorities noted that further information on potential victims was still being gathered.
Skepticism and Conflicting Reports
While the Ukrainian military has labeled the missile attack as an ICBM strike, there has been significant skepticism surrounding the claim. Western officials, citing ABC News, suggested that the weapon used in the attack was more likely a shorter-range ballistic missile, which Russia has frequently deployed throughout the conflict. These missiles, although still formidable, are far less powerful and less strategic than ICBMs, which are capable of carrying nuclear payloads and have ranges that could span continents.
John Healey, the UK’s defense secretary, commented on the reports, saying that while he was aware of media speculation regarding the use of a new type of ballistic missile, these reports were still unconfirmed. He emphasized the need for caution until more information became available.
As of Thursday, Russian officials had not acknowledged the use of an ICBM. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not mention any such missile strike in its daily briefing, and there was no immediate response from the Kremlin regarding Ukraine’s claim.
A Message or a Mistake?
Experts in military technology and strategy have raised questions about why Russia would use an ICBM in this context. Intercontinental ballistic missiles, first developed during the Cold War, are designed for long-range strikes with nuclear payloads. These missiles are costly, and their accuracy is generally lower compared to shorter-range weapons, making them an inefficient choice for targeting specific sites in Ukraine.
Pavel Podvig, a recognized expert on Russian nuclear weapons, pointed out that the use of an ICBM would not make tactical sense due to its high cost and relatively low precision. However, he speculated that such a strike could be more of a symbolic gesture or a signal from Moscow, rather than a practical military strike. ICBMs are powerful deterrent weapons, and their use in this conflict could be interpreted as an attempt to intimidate Ukraine and its Western allies.
The Stakes of Nuclear Messaging
ICBMs are primarily seen as strategic weapons, designed for use in potential nuclear warfare. Russia’s stockpile of ICBMs, which numbers around 326 according to US congressional research, has long been a core part of its nuclear deterrent. The use of such a missile would not only be a significant military escalation but also a powerful political message. Given that the missiles can carry nuclear warheads, the potential for the strike to be a show of force cannot be discounted.
Despite the claims of an ICBM being used, there are currently no signs that Russia has explicitly escalated to the use of nuclear weapons. However, the possibility that this strike could be part of a broader signaling strategy remains high. The recent pattern of escalating rhetoric and military actions, including the use of advanced weapons systems by both sides, suggests that the conflict is entering a more dangerous phase.
A Glimpse Behind the Scenes
Adding to the intrigue of the missile strike, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova was caught in an unguarded moment during a live press briefing. A hot mic picked up her conversation with an unidentified caller, who seemed to direct her not to comment on the missile strike. In the brief exchange, Zakharova confirmed that the strike had targeted the Yuzhmash military facility in Dnipro, but she did not mention the type of missile used. This offhand comment added further fuel to speculation about the nature of the strike and the level of secrecy surrounding it.
International Reactions and Concerns
This latest missile strike comes amid heightened tensions surrounding Russia’s missile capabilities. In the past week, the United States and the United Kingdom authorized Ukraine to use long-range weapons such as the Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles to target Russian infrastructure in the Kursk region. These moves have been met with stern warnings from Moscow, which has threatened retaliation.
In a related development, the US embassy in Kyiv temporarily closed its doors earlier this week after receiving intelligence of a potential airstrike threat in Ukraine. Although the embassy was set to reopen, the warning highlights the ongoing security concerns in the region, particularly regarding Russia’s missile activity.
As of now, the international community is awaiting further details about the missile strike on Dnipro. Ukrainian authorities have not yet confirmed whether the missile was indeed an ICBM or a different type of ballistic missile. The trajectory of the missile, the reports of its impact, and the response from Russia’s defense ministry will likely provide more clarity in the coming days.
Looking Ahead
If Russia has indeed used an ICBM in this conflict, it would represent a major shift in the war, not just militarily but also politically. The use of such a powerful and long-range weapon would send a clear message to Ukraine and its Western allies about Russia’s willingness to escalate the conflict. At the same time, it raises the question of what other military options Russia may consider as the war drags on.
For now, experts are urging caution and emphasizing the need for more evidence before drawing any firm conclusions. However, the strike on Dnipro has undoubtedly raised the stakes in a war that has already claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions.